Expect high open today, as US Markets had huge rally yesterday. For short-term gains, focus on HK stock-warrants. I will prefer Petroch-C1, Shenhua-C1, Sinopec-C1 & Cnooc-C1.
For long-term gains, continue to focus on plantation stocks.
In addition, Google-C1 is listed today.
Ratio : 3000 to 1
IPO Price : RM 0.11
Exercise Price : USD 680
Expiry Date: 6-6-08
Mother Share (as closed on 13-Nov) : USD 660.55
Current Premium : 17.9 %
Current Gearing : 6.69
My Remarks: Depends on how you value it based on market behaviour. Most likely it will trade higher than IPO Price this morning, but in the long run, Google mother share needs to be
USD 778 to reach in-the-money, assuming warrant price is RM 0.11 . So depends on how you see Google in the long run, if you believed Google will reach above USD 778, you can rush in and buy. For me...hehe.....no comments.
For addition info, I received news from my friend that more HK-warrants coming up (Sinopec, Petrochina, China Coal, ICBC ) all issuing IPO of less than RM 0.10, and *WAIT*, Toyota from Japan is also listing on Bursa as warrants soon. Our KLSE is now becoming very 'globalization'. Expect shares from London, Australia to Brazil to South Africa listing as warrants in the near future too ...*snicker*
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Trades for 13 Nov 07
Plantation stocks will be the main focus today. They will continue their bullish momentum despite the drop in yesterday US Markets. Continue to look out for:-
Tanamas, THgroup, Unico, Kretam and IJMplant.
These 5 have the strongest bullish chart.
Tanamas, THgroup, Unico, Kretam and IJMplant.
These 5 have the strongest bullish chart.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Recommended Book: Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator
I highly recommended this book to novice or experienced trader. It's like the 'bible' of trading.
First published in 1923, its a written life account of a market speculator called Jesse Livermore. Imagine if you trade in the 1920s, where there's no internet and prices are in the form of telegram (you get your quotes-tick by tick in minutes instead). This guy is able to make millions (and also lose millions) in that decade.
In this book, Jesse Livermore shares his experience and lessons learnt during his trading. His wisdom words are like Bible's ten commandments. You should get this book, and costs around RM70 in bookstores. I will share some of his wisdoms here:-
1) " It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It always was my sitting. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest thing to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."
2) " Remember that stocks are never too high for you to being buying or too low to begin selling."
3) " Never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia."
4) " The professional concerns himself doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to."
5) " The successful trader has to fight two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear, instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a bigger profits."
Trades for Nov 12 07
No interesting/attractive trades from my weekend analysis. US Markets are badly hit again last friday, and Yen is trading at 1 yr's high (this will affect the carry-trade situation). Japan & Korea is down 2% at point of writing, so let us embrace for a long day of wading in the 'red sea'.
But here's some prediction for this week.
1) Hong Kong index likely to hit 27,200 level (Support 1) or 25,700 level (Support 2) within this week or next week, before staging a rebound. The level is calculated based on Fibonacci Analysis of 38.2% & 50% level.
2) HK/China-listed CA on KLSE will fall another 20%-30%. I went through some of their mother-listed shares such as Sinopec, Petrochina, and they all have serious breakdown. If Hong Kong Index are to hit my calculated level, of course, CAs falling 20%-30% is normal.
3) US market will stage a strong rally this week. The financial index is oversold badly, so there will be a strong rebound coming up this week.
Strategy of the Week:-
Stay in cash, and look for cheap buys on HK/China-listed CA. They will also stage a rebound too, and we are talking about 20-50% return if they 'do' rebound. Just watch for signs of weak selling and you can enter or buy on any good support level you see on the charts.
Good luck trading.
But here's some prediction for this week.
1) Hong Kong index likely to hit 27,200 level (Support 1) or 25,700 level (Support 2) within this week or next week, before staging a rebound. The level is calculated based on Fibonacci Analysis of 38.2% & 50% level.
2) HK/China-listed CA on KLSE will fall another 20%-30%. I went through some of their mother-listed shares such as Sinopec, Petrochina, and they all have serious breakdown. If Hong Kong Index are to hit my calculated level, of course, CAs falling 20%-30% is normal.
3) US market will stage a strong rally this week. The financial index is oversold badly, so there will be a strong rebound coming up this week.
Strategy of the Week:-
Stay in cash, and look for cheap buys on HK/China-listed CA. They will also stage a rebound too, and we are talking about 20-50% return if they 'do' rebound. Just watch for signs of weak selling and you can enter or buy on any good support level you see on the charts.
Good luck trading.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Trades for 9 Nov 07
No picks for today, cause US Markets got hit pretty bad on Wed & Thur, and we are lucky to escape yesterday's Asia stock markets plunge. Asia stock markets are rebounding this morning, so we might be lucky and not open down so badly, but today likely to be choppy.
After going through my charts, chinese/HK warrants look pretty bad. Some looks like its going to break their support, and may send their price going down some more. But if they can hold at their major support level, also looks like a good buy for rebound with little risk. I will list some to see if anyone is interested.
Angang-C1 ( expire 23-Apr-08 ) Support = 0.15 , Reward = 0.225
Chalco-C1 ( expire 25-Feb-08 ) Support = 0.18 , Reward = 0.315
HSBC-C1 ( expire 25-Dec-07 ) Support = 0.17 , Reward = 0.30
Sinopec-C1 ( expire 20-Jan-08 ) Support = 0.30 , Reward = 0.40
How to use the above for trade:-
For example, you can buy Sinopec-C1 at price around 0.30, and risk your cut loss at 0.28. Based on the last 5 trading days, its highest point is 0.40, so your reward can be calculated as 0.40.
Your reward-to-risk ratio is (0.40-0.30) / (0.30-0.28) = 5 , which is a very good ratio, as you are risking 0.02 loss for a 0.10 reward.
After going through my charts, chinese/HK warrants look pretty bad. Some looks like its going to break their support, and may send their price going down some more. But if they can hold at their major support level, also looks like a good buy for rebound with little risk. I will list some to see if anyone is interested.
Angang-C1 ( expire 23-Apr-08 ) Support = 0.15 , Reward = 0.225
Chalco-C1 ( expire 25-Feb-08 ) Support = 0.18 , Reward = 0.315
HSBC-C1 ( expire 25-Dec-07 ) Support = 0.17 , Reward = 0.30
Sinopec-C1 ( expire 20-Jan-08 ) Support = 0.30 , Reward = 0.40
How to use the above for trade:-
For example, you can buy Sinopec-C1 at price around 0.30, and risk your cut loss at 0.28. Based on the last 5 trading days, its highest point is 0.40, so your reward can be calculated as 0.40.
Your reward-to-risk ratio is (0.40-0.30) / (0.30-0.28) = 5 , which is a very good ratio, as you are risking 0.02 loss for a 0.10 reward.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Trading Picks for 7 Nov 2007
Short-term Play ( 1-3 days)
1. MUH
2. Bjland
3. HSBC - C1
My picks are based on my stock trading system which calculates the probability of a stock to register strong gains within the indicated time frame. Of course, the selection is based on the highest calculated probability value that meets my target. It is not meant for straight buys, but instead a recommendation for you to examine the highlighted stocks. How you going to trade it are up to individual's style, but the utmost importance is knowing yr risk before you put in the trade.
1. MUH
2. Bjland
3. HSBC - C1
My picks are based on my stock trading system which calculates the probability of a stock to register strong gains within the indicated time frame. Of course, the selection is based on the highest calculated probability value that meets my target. It is not meant for straight buys, but instead a recommendation for you to examine the highlighted stocks. How you going to trade it are up to individual's style, but the utmost importance is knowing yr risk before you put in the trade.
Scrolls of Wisdom # 1 : Define your stop loss (risk) before putting on any trade and obey your stop loss
On Monday 5-11-07, my streamyx is down and I had to go to a nearby A.A.Anthony Securities Branch to trade. At that time, there's is an old uncle ( 50-55+ ) sitting next to me. We had a nice conversation and he told me he's out of job and had to try his luck at the stock market to earn some meal money....
Uncle: Why is the market so bad? ( Asian stock markets all badly hurt on 5th Nov 07 )
Me: Market bad, you take any loss, uncle?
Uncle: Yap, I had 5,000 shares of Dataprep and its due tomorrow. (at that morning, Dataprep is still trading at 0.72)
Me: What price did you bought?
Uncle: 0.76
Me: Dataprep is pretty weak based on the charts, its best for you to have a stop loss on it.
Uncle: I know, I plan to lose RM 200 on it.
Me: You are already losing RM 200 at this 0.72 price.
Uncle: I also know, I am hoping for a rebound to sell. This Dataprep is supposedly to be strong.
Dataprep suddenly falls below the 0.70 price level ...0.69...0.68....0.67.......
Me : Uncle, you better cut loss now, market looking really bad.
Uncle: I know, but I can't sell now, because I am now losing more than RM 400 now. Let's hope for a rebound.
Does this "Uncle" sounds just like you?
If you want to trade successfully in the stock market, the most important rule is define your risk before you put in a trade and obey your stop loss. Playing the stock market is just like playing poker. In poker, you are to put in a wager bet before you get to see your cards. If the cards that you receive are crappy, will you still continue bet on? No, you don't. You forfeit the wager bet and start a new game with a new bet. Likewise, in a stock market, there are always many opportunities for you to make money. If the current trade that you are holding are showing are showing a loss, sell it and move on to other better trade. Never hope for a rebound, but instead fear that it will develop into a bigger loss. Remember, if your stock falls 50% from your buy entry, it will now need to rise 100% to touch yr original buy entry. So:-
Step 1: Define your risk. You can based on % percentage loss, dollar loss, or price support. If you buy a stock at RM 1.00, you may wish to risk only 5% pullback. Thus the stop loss price will be RM 0.95.
Step 2: If the trade hits your stop loss, just sell it. Don't let your emotions control you.
If you trade 10 times this month. 6 of your trades are 5% losses, while the remaining 4 are 20% gain. You will earn a very good return, because:-
20% X 4 winning trades - 5% X 6 losing trades = 50% Return.
Uncle: Why is the market so bad? ( Asian stock markets all badly hurt on 5th Nov 07 )
Me: Market bad, you take any loss, uncle?
Uncle: Yap, I had 5,000 shares of Dataprep and its due tomorrow. (at that morning, Dataprep is still trading at 0.72)
Me: What price did you bought?
Uncle: 0.76
Me: Dataprep is pretty weak based on the charts, its best for you to have a stop loss on it.
Uncle: I know, I plan to lose RM 200 on it.
Me: You are already losing RM 200 at this 0.72 price.
Uncle: I also know, I am hoping for a rebound to sell. This Dataprep is supposedly to be strong.
Dataprep suddenly falls below the 0.70 price level ...0.69...0.68....0.67.......
Me : Uncle, you better cut loss now, market looking really bad.
Uncle: I know, but I can't sell now, because I am now losing more than RM 400 now. Let's hope for a rebound.
Does this "Uncle" sounds just like you?
If you want to trade successfully in the stock market, the most important rule is define your risk before you put in a trade and obey your stop loss. Playing the stock market is just like playing poker. In poker, you are to put in a wager bet before you get to see your cards. If the cards that you receive are crappy, will you still continue bet on? No, you don't. You forfeit the wager bet and start a new game with a new bet. Likewise, in a stock market, there are always many opportunities for you to make money. If the current trade that you are holding are showing are showing a loss, sell it and move on to other better trade. Never hope for a rebound, but instead fear that it will develop into a bigger loss. Remember, if your stock falls 50% from your buy entry, it will now need to rise 100% to touch yr original buy entry. So:-
Step 1: Define your risk. You can based on % percentage loss, dollar loss, or price support. If you buy a stock at RM 1.00, you may wish to risk only 5% pullback. Thus the stop loss price will be RM 0.95.
Step 2: If the trade hits your stop loss, just sell it. Don't let your emotions control you.
If you trade 10 times this month. 6 of your trades are 5% losses, while the remaining 4 are 20% gain. You will earn a very good return, because:-
20% X 4 winning trades - 5% X 6 losing trades = 50% Return.
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